How effective is paid advertising anyway?

Scott Cunningham, on the selection bias in paid clicks:

[..] there was a nearly one-to-one increase in natural clicks [..] as though users were already going [..]

Reminds me of 2020, when in the Netherlands the NPO (national broadcasting service, akin to BBC), removed third-party tracking and actually increased their revenue in doing so:

@krinkle Why do they think stopped shipping third party trackers? I just visited their and it is ful of them?

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