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Will a majority of respondents to this poll correctly guess the majority response to this poll?

@mithrandir @fool i guessed yes, thought more people would have that idea

@georgia @fool @mithrandir nonono bias!

@wizzwizz4 @fool Oh this is true, I messed up the analysis. Everyone flipping a coin is actually only semistable in the "always choose no" direction, unstable in the "always choose yes" direction.

Interesting, then, that the game theoretical solution doesn't match the experimental outcome.

Interesting, then, that the game theoretical solution doesn't match the experimental outcome.

@wizzwizz4 @fool Also, I'm starting to think that 'no' is *always* the incorrect answer, because the poll is specifically asking if the majority of respondents will pick the *majority* answer, now the correct answer, which is tautologically true.

@fool @wizzwizz4 s/now/not/

@wizzwizz4 @fool no they don't. It just happens that all the nash equilibria have all players picking the same strategy(because the game is very simply and symmetrical). You could do the whole analysis for N players by solving a differential equation on an N-dimensional disc, but that's overkill and you'll get the same answer.

A nash equilibrium is a state where nobody could get better results by unilaterally changing their strategy an infinitesimal amount. Whether or not players try to predict each others actions, with perfect play they will almost certainly end up at a Nash equilibrium, because otherwise they would unilaterally change their strategy to get to a better outcome. If there's some reason why they wouldn't do that, probably the game is improperly posed.

A nash equilibrium is a state where nobody could get better results by unilaterally changing their strategy an infinitesimal amount. Whether or not players try to predict each others actions, with perfect play they will almost certainly end up at a Nash equilibrium, because otherwise they would unilaterally change their strategy to get to a better outcome. If there's some reason why they wouldn't do that, probably the game is improperly posed.

@mithrandir @fool They're assuming that people are using the “think the problem through” strategy.

@wizzwizz4 @fool I don't know what you mean here, yes the entire field of game theory is interested in perfect play. Imperfect play is extremely hard to model mathematically because you would have to take into account the psychology of the players. I am not a psychologist, and game theory is hard enough without it.

@mithrandir @fool That's why I prefer decision theory. 😛

@wizzwizz4 @fool sounds interesting.

@fool

I gave the wrong answer only for fun 😃

I let you guess what I answered!

@fool my logic was to take the easiest way: the first option displayed or quickest to click.

Hope to be right when the poll ends.

But here, it's yes and no. If I pick no, and a lot of other people also pick no, then obviously by the numbers, I will have picked the majority answer. But factually, it will be incorrect. There was a majority answer, it's not 50/50, so clearly the answer cannot be "no".

Picking "yes" means I will be wrong if the answer picked by the majority turns out to be "no". But at least I won't be wrong while being right.

Am I thinking about this incorrectly?

@Mayana Maybe!

@fool Yes, I did! Can I have a cookie now?

@Minionslayer If you didn't bring your own, you'll have to wait until the results are official.

@fool Awwwww c'mooon!!!

@fool I've just expressed my ever-present optimism: NO.

@fool survey of optimists

@fool Well, I guessed right, then.

Confirmation bias wins.

@fool I appreciate that a 108 people joined me in voting no out of spite

Mathemagician@mithrandir@pl.wizards.zone