Will a majority of respondents to this poll correctly guess the majority response to this poll?
@mithrandir @fool These analyses assume everyone performs the same strategy. Whilst this is a better assumption for coöperative than competitive games, it's still not very good; better to use an acausal decision theory that can model agents modelling (and hence predicting) other agents, and the like.
@fool my logic was to take the easiest way: the first option displayed or quickest to click.
Hope to be right when the poll ends.
@fool If the options were just 1 and 2, this would be a matter of a coin flip more than anything. Although I'd likely pick 1 just because it's the top option, so more people are likely to pick it.
But here, it's yes and no. If I pick no, and a lot of other people also pick no, then obviously by the numbers, I will have picked the majority answer. But factually, it will be incorrect. There was a majority answer, it's not 50/50, so clearly the answer cannot be "no".
Picking "yes" means I will be wrong if the answer picked by the majority turns out to be "no". But at least I won't be wrong while being right.
Am I thinking about this incorrectly?
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